<FONT face=新宋体><FONT size=5><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18.05pt; mso-char-indent-count: 1.5">在</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">11</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">24</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">日“</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt">冲关无望反抽宜减仓”一文中笔者已深对市场是否能冲击前期高点</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt">3478</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt">点表示忧虑。而实际上当时媒体的超过</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt">80%</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt">声音积极看多。进入</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt">12</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt">月份后两市大部分中小盘个股出现明显的走弱调整，眼看市场就要步入新的大调整之时，以</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">中国石化为代表的大盘蓝筹时隐时现的出马狂拉一把。摇摇欲坠的指数就这样三次被勉强的维持不跌。主流媒体纷纷乐道市场会出现八二现象的转换此言论令相当多投资者神“晕”二股，而实际上这仅仅是那些电视和媒体上专家的幻想。大盘蓝筹二股并没有出现持续的行情。就笔者分析，以中国石化为代表的大盘蓝筹，银行，证券商股前面脉冲式的动了一下应属新发行的开放式基金在建仓期内作配置性的买入罢了。期待这些新基金的建仓买入引带大盘股走出上升行情带大盘股上行现在这个希望彻底破灭了。<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 12.35pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=新宋体><FONT size=5><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">要问这两日大盘大跌的导火线无疑是地产股。现在的房价高到已经上到了天堂大庭可以面对面向上帝问好的位置了。政策调控房价的苗头早已在出现：</SPAN></B><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt">12</SPAN></STRONG><STRONG><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt">月</SPAN></STRONG><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt">2</SPAN></STRONG><STRONG><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-size: 7.5pt">日</SPAN></STRONG><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ??">一年一度的中央经济工作会议召开前夕，中央高层接连针对楼市表态，要抑制投机性购房。国务院总理温总理在上海考察保障性住房工程进展情况时表示</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">要抑制投机性购房，促进房地产业健康发展。这是今年以来，中央高层首度公开对楼市中的投机性需求进行表态。</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt">这就是政策调控房价的信号，一叶知秋信号，这是开始！那么近日：“个人住房转让营业税征免时限由</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt">2</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt">年恢复到</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt">5</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt">年”，“</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt"> <SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>部委出新政打击囤地炒地：拿地首付不低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>50%</SPAN>”</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt"> </SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt">调控房价</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 黑体; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt">政策的出台也并不是什么意外的事情了。咱们的国情很多时候重要政策出来之前都有吹风会消息先透露出来这次也是非常明显的。 <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 12.35pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=新宋体><FONT size=5><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt">地产股的大跌成为压跨市场的最后一根稻草，中长期看投资者要远离地产股！都是</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ansi-language: ZH-CN">事后的事情，废话不多说现在分析市场后市的去向！</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></FONT></FONT></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24.1pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><FONT face=新宋体><FONT size=5><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">按照时间跨度技术分析有长期，中期</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，短期分析。长期，中期</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">，短期的走势之间存在结构上的架构关系。如：</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">05</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月到</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">07</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">10</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月是一波超级大牛市股指从</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1000</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点附近上升到最高</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6124</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点。</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">07</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">10</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月后股指从</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6124</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点跌到</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1664</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点则是该大牛市的调整。从</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">08</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">年</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">11</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月由</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1664</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点开始回升到今年</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3478</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点则是对前面大牛市暴跌后的反弹。今年</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">8</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份股指从</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3478</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点调整到</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2639</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点，</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">9</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月后由</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3478</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点回升到</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3339</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">点，这</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">9</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月以来的反抽行情是对</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">8</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">月份调整的反弹。这就是大盘长中短期走势中，不同时间之间所构成的架构关系。</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></FONT></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 24.1pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><FONT face=新宋体><FONT size=5><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体">反弹的力度有强有弱，但反弹是不会超过</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">前面高点的这个是技术者必须紧记的要点，这是从技术分析架构中判断现阶段市场属于什么性质的重要依据！</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ''Times New Roman''; mso-hansi-font-family: ''Times New Roman''">在分析过程中，清楚的认识股指现阶段处于什么状态是非常重要的。这是大局观的分析！</SPAN></B></FONT></FONT><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN></B></P>
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版主分析得很详细，有图有文，谢谢了
谢谢金印！
<FIELDSET><LEGEND><B>无极 </B>于 2009-12-18 19:58:49 在大作中提到</LEGEND>谢谢金印！</FIELDSET>
<P>谢谢分析</P>
<FIELDSET><LEGEND><B>无极 </B>于 2009-12-18 19:58:49 在大作中提到</LEGEND>谢谢金印！</FIELDSET>
谢谢老师。。。。。。。。。
<P>谢谢老师的分析讲解。。。</P>
<P>谢谢老师的分析讲解。。。</P>
谢谢老师！顶。。。。。。。。。
<STRONG>各位朋友晚上好！</STRONG>
一句话： “后市看淡。”<BR>