郎少 发表于 2011-9-9 08:59

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">零售:中报延续一季报增长</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">百货盈利能力提升明显</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #003366; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">广发零售指数显示行业下半年景气不改</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月份零售行业指数继续维持</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月份高位运行,增速达到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">41.26</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">%,环比</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">月份下降</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.66 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">个百分点。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> <BR></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  零售中期业绩综述</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">行业延续一季增长、百货盈利能力明显增强</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  报告期行业销售规模稳定增长,虽然毛利率由于结构性调整略有下降,但零售渠道品牌优势和影响力进一步加强。同时人工成本、门店租金成本等对利润侵蚀程度加剧,抵减了企业经营效率提升所带来的成果。纵观上半年,上市公司口径净利润增长较之去年更多的是由行业集中度提升所带来。百货所面对竞争相对缓和,同时受益于消费升级,近年来盈利能力不断增强,是我们重点推荐的投资标的。我们剔除了因合并重组、房地产业务处置等一次性收益得出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2011 </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">年上半年我们重点覆盖公司口径下,归属于母公司净利润增速为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">32.80</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">%,大于一季度</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">28.48</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">%,数据证明中报增长良好的延续了一季报情况,符合我们之前预期。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  近期行业、公司资讯及调研动态</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  </SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、上半年居民收入跑赢</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">CPI</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、商务部牵头建议全国肉菜流通追溯体制;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">、上海商业物业下半年集中释放;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  调研动态:南京中商、友好集团、永辉超市、潮宏基、友阿股份、文峰股份。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  投资建议</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  我们重点推荐的首商股份、合肥百货、老凤祥、步步高、友阿股份、南京中商均超预期,珠宝专业连锁持续推荐潮宏基,区域角度来看,估值合理的重庆百货、文峰股份、合肥百货是重点品种,新华百货下半年受事件驱动因素影响将带来超额收益。成商集团主要关注公司春熙店官司进展。展望明年有望实现高增长的拐点型公司我们推荐南京中商、步步高和商业城。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ??; mso-hansi-font-family: ??; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt">  风险提示:消费增速放缓,劳动力和物业成本持续上涨风险。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: #383838; 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